Tuesday, February 5, 2008


What does it mean, and who will win? Some of the states have closed primaries, which means voters have to vote as registered; others are open, which means independents or other non-registered may vote either way; others are semi-closed or semi-open, which means you can vote for whomever you want, but you have to declare an affiliation to get a ballot.

Does it make a difference in closed, open, or semi when it comes to who carries the state?

Looking at the GOP race, it shows that it could make a difference. You decide based on these results so far:

Nevada Caucus (34 delegates) (Party members only)
Romney won this one with 51% of the vote.

Wyoming Caucus (14 delegates ) (Party members only)
Romney won this one with 67% of the vote.

Iowa Causus (40 delegates) (Party members only)
Huckabee won this one with 34% of the vote.

Michigan Primary (30 delegates) (closed PMO)
Romney won this one with 38.9% of the vote.

New Hampshire Primary (12 delegates) (a modified closed-open to indep and others)
McCain won with 37% of the vote.

South Carolina Primary (24 delegates) (Open)
McCain won with 33% of the vote.

Florida Primary (57 delegates) (Closed)
McCain won with 36% of the vote.

Here is what is up for grabs today:

Alabama (48) Open Huckabee Clinton
Alaska (29) Open Romney Obama
Arizona (53) Closed McCain Clinton
Arkansas (34) Open Huckabee Clinton
California (173) Closed (R) Open (D) McCain Clinton
Colorado (46) Closed Romney Obama
Connecticut (30) Closed McCain (g) Obama
Delaware (18) Closed McCain (g) Obma
Georgia (72) Open Huckabee Obma
Illinois (70) Semi-open McCain Obma
Massachusetts (43) Semi-open Romney Clinton
Montana (25) Republican only Romney Obama
Missouri (58) Open McCain Obama
Minnesota (41) Closed Romney Obama
North Dakota (26) Closed Romney Obama
New York (101) Closed McCain (g) Clinton
New Jersey (52) Semi-open McCain (g) Clinton
Oklahoma (41) Closed McCain Clinton
Tennessee ( 55) Open Huckabee Clinton
Utah (36) Closed Romney Obama
West Virgina (30) GOP only Huckabee -

The following are Democrat only:

New Mexico Obama
Idaho Obama
Kansas Obma

We will take a look and compare how well the candidates did in the open, closed, and semi and determine if it makes a difference.

At this point it's your guess, so if you feel like making a prediction based on closed, open, or semi or just want to say who will take all the cookies, have your say.


Ticker said...

Maybe I should have put in another factor...The Media. According to the webnews on Yahoo Huckabee was announced the winner at 2:30 today. Polls are open past 5 in that state. How do they call him a winner with less than 50% of the polls counted? So looks like the LSM will elected who will be running and then elected the next President. What ya think?

Anonymous said...

I think voters have seen " Anchorman " Romney for what he was and still is .. Another Mass. liberal Gov. who has flip flopped to pander.

And having once admired Sean Hannity , I now can't stand his constant litanty of McCain's so-called " sins " which he repeats like a robot for 3 hours each afternoon while cheerleading for Romney. McCain got an 85% rating from the ACU. Like it or not Sean, John is going to be the GOP nominee and the next President. So get used to it !

Anonymous said...

"So get used to it !" Not any time soon. I'm no political pundit like you two fellas but I do believe the voters want something new and are willing to bet on a history maker. The Democrats are going to produce one while the Republicans eat each other alive.

Ron Paul fans are pushing for him to make a third party run. The man has an amazing ability to collect cash and if the faithful have anything to say about it he is going to eat a huge chunk of the Republican pie, enough to guarantee a Republican defeat in November.

This old man refuses to get emotional about any of it. Over my 48 years of voting I learned long ago that to get overly enthusiastic about any political candidate is to court a huge disappointment.

I think we need to leave behind the era of purchased presidencies and start taking a serious look at an alternative way to select our leaders, a way that falls under the term meritocracy. If businesses were run by people who won popularity contests...well I guess you can finish the sentence.

Ticker said...

Taking a look at the Open, Closed, Semi-open/closed results and wondering if there was/is a trend there.

In the Open states where anyone can vote but must declare at time of voting it is interesting that Huckabee garnered (5) five of these states while McCain captured (1) one.
Romney received (0)

Huckabee's victory's, came of course, in the Southern Evangelical States that not being a surprise.
McCain won no Southern State other than SC and Flordia and those by a close margin.

Taking Huckabee out of the picture it would seem that Romney would have captured those Souther Evangelical States with perhaps Tennessee being a toss up state.

In the closed states the wins were closer with Huckabee taking one state, Romney captured(9) nine while McCain received (8), three of which were Guiliani endorsed states but a trend is there showing Romney did better with the closed caucus states than McCain,

In the Semi states Romney received only (1) one and that being his home state while McCain took (3)three and one of those being a Guliani endorsed state.

So it appears that McCain's lead comes from taking those more liberal states and with Romney showing better in the more conservative and standard GOP states. Taking Huckabee out of the equation and we would have a simular race as seen between Obama and Clinton.

So Fred, your accessment of Romney as the liberal won't fly my friend. History may also prove you wrong in declaring McCain a winner before the final vote is taken. Like they say, it ain't over til the fat lady sings and she just started.